Saturday, July 25, 2015

Second-Year QBs: Beware the Sophomore Slump

With last year's QB class entering their second year in the league, and with each player having less than eight wins under their belt, we look to the following season. Many QBs are known to decline in their second season of the NFL when starting their first year. Many notable QBs would be Robert Griffin III (NFC East Champion to 3-13), Matt Ryan (QBR dropped 7 points), and even the great Brett Farve (QBR dropped 13 points). How will the 2014 Draft Class of QBs fair in the upcoming year?

Blake Bortles (JAX)
Drafted 3rd Overall
Key Loss: WR Cecil Shorts (HOU)
Key Addition: RB T.J. Yeldon (2nd Pick from Alabama)
Record: 3-11 (Started last 14 Games)

Bortles was the first QB taken in last year's draft. The announcement that he was picked was met with boos and anger from the local Jacksonville Fan Base. Since then, Bortles has been able to turn them around just a bit. Most Jags fans are now happy with their selection and are looking towards the future. They know that this teams is still a few years away from the playoffs. 

With the Jaguars owning both Free Agency and the 2015 Draft, Bortles has been put in a very good position for the upcoming years. Grabbing a new Lineman from the Cowboys stacked line, the Pro-Bowl TE Julius Thomas, and getting a new RB will surely help Bortles in the long run for this season.

While his offensive line still needs work, having an Alabama Alumni will help. Trent Richardson (OAK), Eddy Lacy (GB), and Mark Ingram (NO) are all former Bama players and all have had good careers when they are not injured.

Bortles also has a young, hungry receiving core around him. He will grow with these players and only get better in sync with them. Allen Hurns, Allen Robinson, and Marques Lee were all drafted last year and have all shown glimpses of brilliance. Adding a former number one WR Rashad Greene will only improve the depth they have at the position.

Prediction: No Slump, similar to last year
End of the Season: 5-11, 3,200 yards, 17 TDs, 15 Ints

Teddy Bridgewater (MIN)
Drafted 32nd Overall
Key Loss: Greg Jennings (MIA)
Key Addition: Mike Wallace (MIA)
Record: 6-7 (Started 13 total)

Bridgewater was seen as the top QB in the 2014 class, but barely got drafted in the first round thanks to a trade between the Vikings and the Seahawks. Despite a rocky start, even with a losing record, Bridgewater did have very good stats during the end of the season. The Vikings were able to hang with the Lions and Dolphins, two of the leagues best defenses, and the Vikings only lost by two points in each of those games.

When it came time for this past year's draft, some thought that Minnesota would look to draft DeVante Parker. This would reunite Bridgewater with his number one receiver from Louisville. The Vikings decided to strengthen their defense instead.

With Greg Jennings gone, and Mike Wallace in his place, we look to who will be WR two and three. This will be between Jarius Wright, Cordarrelle Patterson, and Charles Johnson. Patterson seems to be the least likely. He has been viewed as a bust from being drafted 31st overall in the 2013 Draft. Patterson will most likely default to punt returns and Jet Sweep plays.

A very good addition for Bridgewater is OT T.J. Clemmings from Pitt. Clemmings was viewed as a first round talent, but somehow fell to the fourth round. Getting protection for Bridgewater will be key late in the game.

The biggest upside for Bridgewater not to have a slump is that Adrien Peterson is back on the roster. While Matt Asiata and Jerrick McKinnon were good in his absence, Peterson is fully rested and ready to take it to the house.

Prediction: No Slump
End of the season: 8-7-1, 3,500 yards, 20 TDs, 12 Ints

Derek Carr (OAK)
Drafted 36th Overall
Key Loss: WR James Jones (FA)
Key Addition: WR Amari Cooper (1st Pick from Alabama)
End of the Season: 3-13 (Only Rookie to start All Season)

Carr was taken with lots of worry from the fans. After the drafting of his brother earlier in the 2000's, not many fans wanted another Carr under center. Still, with an impressive win against the Bills and Chiefs under his belt, Carr has nowhere to go but up.

Going up will be the problem though. The Raiders made many moves this offseason at many positions. On the offense alone, C Rodney Houston (KC), WR Michael Crabtree (SF), and RB Trent Richardson (IND) were added, and that is just from Free Agency.

They also have a new Head Coach in Jack Del Rio, the former OC from Jacksonville.

The problem with the Raiders is that there are a lot of moving parts. How will Cooper and Crabtree fit with Holmes and Streater? Who will be the featured RB: Richardson or Reese? Will the addition of Christian Ponder scare Carr into thinking he will be in a fight for the starting job every week of the season?

Carr's success will most likely rely heavily on the Raider's defense. With LB Kalil Mack, CB Charles Woodson, and DE Justin Tuck Leading the charge, they will help new players like 2nd Round pick DE Mario Edwards Jr. become better, as so to help the offense.

Prediction: Slump
End of the season: 1-8 (Replaced by Ponder), 2,000 yards, 10 TDs, 12 Ints.

Johnny Manziel (CLE)
Drafted 22nd Overall
Key Loss: TE Jordan Cameron (MIA)
Key Addition: WR Dwayne Bowe (KC)
End of the Season: 0-2 (Only Started in 2 games)

Johnny Football seems to not be what everyone thought he would be in the NFL. He only played two whole games before seeing the bench again. He has only passed for 175 yards in 5 games played. Other stats include no passing TDs, 1 rushing TD, and 2 Ints. 

How I see it? Manziel has hit the floor. He, like Carr, have nowhere to go but up. There is one thing standing in his way: Josh McCown.

McCown has been given a chance over the past three seasons to show that he is a good starting QB. It happened after Jay Cutler went down for a few weeks in the 2013 season. McCown came in and left with a winning record and an offer to be the starting QB for Tampa Bay. After one season he was let go, losing the starting job halfway through the season to Mike Glennon. 

Manziel will likely not get the starting job out of the gate, but he will get another shot. 

Prediction: Rise
End the season: 3-4, 1,400 yards, 7 TDs, 8 Ints, 3 Rushing TDs