I will start with this: HIGHLY UNLIKELY, but yes.
FSU is a very young team right now. This means a boatload of inexperience. But it does not look that way from some of our younger players. Safety Derwin James Jr. and Defensive End Josh Sweat have been making some big plays over the past few weeks since they have started. Both of them are also True Freshman.
With the playoffs slowly closing in, there is a way for FSU to still make it into the top four. It will not be easy and we will need some help:
1. Win Out
The number one priority for FSU is to win the remaining five games on their schedule. These include two away games at ranked, rival schools, Clemson and Florida. The last time the Seminoles played each of these teams in their house, FSU outscored them by a combine 88-21. This is purely a hope though. Clemson is seen as one of, if not the, best team in the country. This team just destroyed Miami 58-0 at Sun Life Stadium. It does not help the Seminoles that they are led by Heisman Contender Deshaun Watson.
Florida could be a different story. With the loss of Quarterback Will Grier, many people thought that Florida was done. The Gators still managed to have a fighting chance in the fourth quarter during their meeting with #6 LSU. This week the Gators play a Nick Chubb-less Georgia. This game can be telling of how good Florida actually is against a team without a Heisman Candidate running down their throats.
As for the rest of the Florida State schedule, they play Syracuse, North Carolina State, and Tennessee-Chattanooga at Doak Campbell. These should all be easy wins.
2. Michigan and a One-loss Michigan State beat Ohio State
We need the Buckeyes to lose, plain and simple. The Buckeyes look as though they have hit cruise control since the season began. They have played close games with teams that have no business being within two scores of Urban Myers. Teams like Northern Illinois and Indiana were decided by a single score. If the Buckeyes continue this trend, they could end up losing in a bizarre fashion much like Michigan and Florida State.
Both of these teams have the opportunity to beat Ohio State. Michigan State will need to lose to someone else. Seeing that their only other games are Nebraska, Maryland, and Penn State, I do not like the chances of a one-loss MSU happening this year.
Many wrote of Michigan this year due to Harbaugh not having a chance to recruit. Barring their week one loss, the Wolverines look to be a strong team moving forward. Disregard the MSU game and Michigan is a strong one-loss team who could beat anyone on any given day. I believe that the Blue have the best chance at knocking off the champs this year.
3. Stanford losing to a team not named Notre Dame (Possibly)
This one is a maybe. We don't need this to happen but it would be nice. Stanford has a pretty easy schedule for the rest of the year. The only ranked teams they could play are Notre Dame in the second to last week and whoever they would play in the PAC-12 Championship. The Cardinal will most likely face #13 Utah or #24 UCLA in the Championship.
Stanford will only need to lose to Notre Dame if, and only if, Notre Dame loses between now and that game. What would currently be seen as a top 10 matchup could easily slip into a #15 against #21 match. In this case, we would want Notre Dame to win.
This is because the rankings of the PAC-12 East and West Champs would be too low for one more ranked win to boost them into the top four.
4. Florida wins the SEC
I know, this is going to be hard for some people to root for, but this is the key to our season. How good would a win over the SEC East Champ look? Alright, maybe not that great. We can all agree the SEC East is about as weak as the Big 10 West. But still, if they won it all, that means a two loss team (Yes, I am saying we beat Florida) would be the SEC Champion.
This is important for a few reasons. First, Florida does not play anymore ranked teams besides FSU and whoever they would face in the SEC Championship. Second, if FSU beats UF, the Seminole's rank will increase by large margin. Finally, if a, let's say #19, Florida were to beat a top five LSU or Alabama team, that would crush the chance that any SEC team would even make the playoff.
While these are the top points, they are not the only ones. If TCU were to lose to Baylor, OSU, or OU. Maybe Iowa wins the Big 10. Who knows? Maybe Florida State and Clemson could make it in together depending on what happens.
Basically, if everything I said happens, the top four would include the following teams:
1. TCU
2. Michigan State
3. Florida State
4. Could be anyone
This leaves one final question: Can FSU do enough to be in?
Wednesday, October 28, 2015
Monday, October 5, 2015
Contender or Pretender?
There was a ton of movement in the AP Poll this weekend with many top 10 teams losing and being undefeated no longer. From Notre Dame to Ole Miss, the tides have clearly shifted and the college football world is in utter chaos. I love it. But this begs the following question: who is an actual contender for the playoffs? Let us take a look at some of the teams that moved up this week and possibly down.
5 Utah (Pac-12)
With a 4-0 record underneath their belts, Utah looks to be riding high once again, but are they really a great team? Let's take a look at their schedule so far: Michigan, Utah State, at Fresno State, and at Oregon. Their win over Michigan is looking a little bit better every week since Michigan is now 3-1 and ranked in the top 25. Discounting the two cupcake games in weeks two and three, we are left with the Oregon game. Oregon was blown out 62-20 and was ranked 13 at the time of this loss. Now they are nowhere to be seen in the polls.
In an earlier post, I had Oregon losing to Arizona being the nail in the proverbial playoff coffin. I was definitely wrong about this. Oregon is beginning to look like a flash in the pan after the Mariota era came to a close. This win could start to look like just a blowout of a nothing team depending on how they play.
Looking at their statistics, Utah looks to be heavy on the run, accumulating 816 yards among all of their running backs. More than half of these yards are from their starting back, Devontae Booker. He also leads the team with 4 rushing touchdowns.
Defensively, they have held all of their opponents under 25 points per game. This is a decent statistic, but they have not faced a top tier offense yet to be truly tested. While Oregon is ranked 10 currently, that win is still trending downward. Other rankings of offense are as follows: Michigan (77), Fresno State (125), and Utah State (117). These are not even in the top half.
Contender or Pretender?
Pretender: With three ranked matchups left against Cal, USC, and UCLA, I do not foresee a PAC-12 Championship in Utah's crystal ball.
11 Florida (SEC)
Florida single-highhandedly decimated Ole Miss this past weekend, a team stacked on both sides of the ball. Grier seemed to have had no issue while being sick during the game, passing for 271 yards and four touchdowns. Taking a look at their schedule, the Gators took care of their cupcake games easily, outscoring their opponents 92-37. Granted, the game against East Carolina was a one score game, but they did play earlier this year in a bowl game.
As for SEC games, the Gators only beat UK 14-9. This does not look impressive, seeing that UK is never a football powerhouse. Florida also had a huge comeback win against Tennessee a few weeks back with only seconds left in the 4th quarter.
What about their upcoming schedule? Florida still has three ranked match-ups on their slate and two of them are on the road. They will go to LSU, the current favorite to win the SEC with Leonard Fournette at the helm. This game is their hardest and I honestly believe that this will be a mark in the loss column for the Gators.
Then the traditional neutral site meeting between the Gators and the Bulldogs will happen the following week. If Georgia has any chance of contending for the SEC title, this game is a must win for them.
Finally, the Gators play in-state rival Florida State in the final week of the regular season. This game is in the swamp and as of right now, the Gators look to have the upper hand with the Seminoles struggling to get to the quarterback and have an effective passing game.
Contender or Pretender?
Contender: This is for right now, but we will know more after the Tigers play the Gators in two weeks.
12 Florida State (ACC)
High off of a 29-game win streak from 2012-2015, the Seminoles are still trying to pursue perfection in some way, shape and form. A current 26-game ACC win streak is also in jeopardy this season. So far, the Noles have not looked very impressive, but have still remained undefeated as such. ESPN just recently named them the "worst undefeated team." This could be an exaggeration (considering Toledo is 24 and undefeated), but of the Power 5, I believe it is true.
The Noles took care of their cupcake teams like most Power 5 schools do, outscoring Texas State and USF 93-30. In ACC play against Boston College, they won a heavy defensive game 14-0 on a Friday night, a night HC Jimbo Fisher has explicitly stated he despises when playing football. This past weekend, the Noles even struggled against Wake Forest, a team who scored their first touchdown against the Noles since 2011. FSU only won by eight points.
The team is mostly based around three people: RB Dalvin Cook, CB Jalen Ramsey, and K Roberto Aguayo. Cook is currently a Heisman candidate and has had a prolific start this year, rushing for 570 yards and six scores. He was taken out of the Wake Forest game due to a pulled hamstring. Fisher says he is day-to-day.
Ramsey is a top five player heading into this year's NFL Draft and ranked as one of the top three defensive players. With the defense currently ranked 13 in the country, a fan would be happy with this; but the Noles have yet to face a high ranking offense.
With Clemson and Florida on the horizon for the Seminoles, it is hard to determine what will happen in the upcoming weeks. I believe it will all depend on the play of QB Everett Golson, the transfer from Notre Dame. If he can return to the level he played at during the 2012 season, Florida State should look to be a force in the College Football Playoff.
Contender or Pretender?
Pretender: This is until we see something come from Golson. If he continues to plateau, the Seminoles are in trouble.
5 Utah (Pac-12)
With a 4-0 record underneath their belts, Utah looks to be riding high once again, but are they really a great team? Let's take a look at their schedule so far: Michigan, Utah State, at Fresno State, and at Oregon. Their win over Michigan is looking a little bit better every week since Michigan is now 3-1 and ranked in the top 25. Discounting the two cupcake games in weeks two and three, we are left with the Oregon game. Oregon was blown out 62-20 and was ranked 13 at the time of this loss. Now they are nowhere to be seen in the polls.
In an earlier post, I had Oregon losing to Arizona being the nail in the proverbial playoff coffin. I was definitely wrong about this. Oregon is beginning to look like a flash in the pan after the Mariota era came to a close. This win could start to look like just a blowout of a nothing team depending on how they play.
Looking at their statistics, Utah looks to be heavy on the run, accumulating 816 yards among all of their running backs. More than half of these yards are from their starting back, Devontae Booker. He also leads the team with 4 rushing touchdowns.
Defensively, they have held all of their opponents under 25 points per game. This is a decent statistic, but they have not faced a top tier offense yet to be truly tested. While Oregon is ranked 10 currently, that win is still trending downward. Other rankings of offense are as follows: Michigan (77), Fresno State (125), and Utah State (117). These are not even in the top half.
Contender or Pretender?
Pretender: With three ranked matchups left against Cal, USC, and UCLA, I do not foresee a PAC-12 Championship in Utah's crystal ball.
11 Florida (SEC)
Florida single-highhandedly decimated Ole Miss this past weekend, a team stacked on both sides of the ball. Grier seemed to have had no issue while being sick during the game, passing for 271 yards and four touchdowns. Taking a look at their schedule, the Gators took care of their cupcake games easily, outscoring their opponents 92-37. Granted, the game against East Carolina was a one score game, but they did play earlier this year in a bowl game.
As for SEC games, the Gators only beat UK 14-9. This does not look impressive, seeing that UK is never a football powerhouse. Florida also had a huge comeback win against Tennessee a few weeks back with only seconds left in the 4th quarter.
What about their upcoming schedule? Florida still has three ranked match-ups on their slate and two of them are on the road. They will go to LSU, the current favorite to win the SEC with Leonard Fournette at the helm. This game is their hardest and I honestly believe that this will be a mark in the loss column for the Gators.
Then the traditional neutral site meeting between the Gators and the Bulldogs will happen the following week. If Georgia has any chance of contending for the SEC title, this game is a must win for them.
Finally, the Gators play in-state rival Florida State in the final week of the regular season. This game is in the swamp and as of right now, the Gators look to have the upper hand with the Seminoles struggling to get to the quarterback and have an effective passing game.
Contender or Pretender?
Contender: This is for right now, but we will know more after the Tigers play the Gators in two weeks.
12 Florida State (ACC)
High off of a 29-game win streak from 2012-2015, the Seminoles are still trying to pursue perfection in some way, shape and form. A current 26-game ACC win streak is also in jeopardy this season. So far, the Noles have not looked very impressive, but have still remained undefeated as such. ESPN just recently named them the "worst undefeated team." This could be an exaggeration (considering Toledo is 24 and undefeated), but of the Power 5, I believe it is true.
The Noles took care of their cupcake teams like most Power 5 schools do, outscoring Texas State and USF 93-30. In ACC play against Boston College, they won a heavy defensive game 14-0 on a Friday night, a night HC Jimbo Fisher has explicitly stated he despises when playing football. This past weekend, the Noles even struggled against Wake Forest, a team who scored their first touchdown against the Noles since 2011. FSU only won by eight points.
The team is mostly based around three people: RB Dalvin Cook, CB Jalen Ramsey, and K Roberto Aguayo. Cook is currently a Heisman candidate and has had a prolific start this year, rushing for 570 yards and six scores. He was taken out of the Wake Forest game due to a pulled hamstring. Fisher says he is day-to-day.
Ramsey is a top five player heading into this year's NFL Draft and ranked as one of the top three defensive players. With the defense currently ranked 13 in the country, a fan would be happy with this; but the Noles have yet to face a high ranking offense.
With Clemson and Florida on the horizon for the Seminoles, it is hard to determine what will happen in the upcoming weeks. I believe it will all depend on the play of QB Everett Golson, the transfer from Notre Dame. If he can return to the level he played at during the 2012 season, Florida State should look to be a force in the College Football Playoff.
Contender or Pretender?
Pretender: This is until we see something come from Golson. If he continues to plateau, the Seminoles are in trouble.
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