A week ago, Lance Zierlein posted a piece called "10 believable things amid all the NFL draft misinformation." Some of these facts seem very likely. Others I see as very unlikely or only under extreme circumstances. Either way, I will list what Zierlein said would happen and post my response accordingly:
1. Paxton Lynch will fly up the draft board
This is very likely now that the two best quarterbacks, Jared Goff and Carson Wentz, will being going one and two respectively. In recent mock drafts, Lynch has been seen going many different places in the first round. He could end up in Cleveland and eight; he could also fall to the Super Bowl Champs at 31. Either way, Lynch greatly benefited from the Rams and Eagles trading up. This fact is good.
2. Cleveland's first-round pick will be for sale... again
I agree with this prediction as well. Cleveland, as we all know, is a mess. No one first-round pick is going to elevate the team to playoff contention. With two picks in next year's draft alone, the Browns could look to add a third by trading out of the top 10. Who would they trade with? Rumor has it, the Dolphins, Giants, and Bears are all interested. The reasoning behind it would be for one of these teams to grab Ohio State Running Back, Ezekiel Elliot. If he is there at eight, Cleveland's phone could be ringing with offers from these teams. On the other hand, many mocks have Elliot landing in Dallas at four. The Cowboy's pick will greatly influence how other teams will look at that eight pick.
3. Miami ends up with Ezekiel Elliot
I see this as highly unlikely. I know I said that they are in the running for the pick, but I think if anyone get's him, it will be the Giants. the Giants are the most ready for a Super Bowl run out of the three teams looking at that eighth overall pick. Adding a reliable running back would elevate the teams offense. Miami would have to give up a great deal of picks and players for this and I believe the Giants will offer more than the fins would be willing to give up.
4. Mackensie Alexander sides out of the first round
I do not see this happening. Alexander is one of the top six corners in this draft and there is a great need on most of these teams for corners. With Ramsey and Hargraves guaranteed to be picked in the top 10, this leaves Alexander, Jackson, Burns, and Apple. Teams like the Steelers, Kansas City, Miami, and now the Panthers are all looking for replacements for their losses this season. I see Alexander getting his named called late tomorrow night.
5. Connor Cook could go in the first round
Yeah... no. Cook will likely be a mid-second rounder. While he has been a proven starter for the Spartans over his career, he was never dazzling people with his plays. He was a decent play-caller. While there are teams with quarterback needs outside of the top two picks, I highly doubt they would waste the pick on Cook. CBS Sports has him ranked as the 44th best player in the draft. On a side note, the last time four quarterbacks were taken in the first round was 2012. That was Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Ryan Tannihill, and Brandon Weeden. Look where the fourth QB ended up.
6. Shaq Lawson goes before Kevin Dodd
I do not know why this is something that would be hard to believe. Lawson is ranked as my third best defensive linemen in this draft. He had the fastest 40-yard dash of all linemen (4.7). He also had the third most sacks last season by any defensive player (12.5). While Dodd was close on both of these, I see Lawson as one of the safest picks in the draft. I would not expect to see him fall any lower than 12th tomorrow night.
7. We might see just two wide receivers go in the first round
This would not surprise me, but I find it unlikely. From picks 22-24, there is clear need at receiver. Houston needs someone to play opposite of Hopkins; Minnesota needs to give Bridgewater more weapons; Cincinnati needs to replace Mohammad Sanu and Marvin Jones. The top four receivers in this class could all be first round talents. Outside of these three, the only other team that could possibly take a receiver would be Kansas City.
8. There isn't a faster-rising offensive lineman than Ryan Kelly
This is very true. I started to predict the rise of Kelly earlier in March before Kiper put his latest mock (at the time) out. Center has become a very coveted position over the past few years. Since 2011, three centers have been taken in the first round. Two of them are Pro-Bowlers and have cemented the offensive line for their teams (Mike Pouncey [MIA], Travis Fredrick [DAL]). Kelly could go anywhere between 16-29. There is always a need on the offensive line.
Unless you're Dallas...
9. Emmanuel Ogbah drops
I have seen this in many mock drafts. He was seen as one of the top five guys at the beginning of the year and he has fallen off the map since then. He ranked second in sacks last year (13.5) and has been dominant for the Cowboys defense in the Big 12. He is a good pass-rusher and there is a chance a team like Carolina or Denver snag him at the tail end of the first round. If not, Cleveland and Dallas could look to get some big talent early in the second round.
10. Traits will push CBs Brandon Williams and Sean Davis way up
Davis (Maryland) and Williams (TA&M) seen going up draft boards? Maybe Davis, not Williams. Davis is like Jalen Ramsey; they have history at corner and safety. He is seen as a second rounder and I agree. Williams on the other hand played one season at corner and the rest at running back. He is great physically for the position, but lacks the knowledge of playing it. Zierlein has him going in the third round. I have him being a late sixth to free agency pick up.
Tomorrow I will release my final mock draft.
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